Goal Rating System - Normal Mode Testing
Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 4:25 pmNormal Mode version of Goal Rating System is another approach to this system. Only matches with Match Rating in range between -2 and 2 will be taken into consideration, so games chosen should all be so called 'close' games. The aim of this experiment will be to take advantage of possible bookmakers' mistakes (is there such a thing?).
System Rules, Selection Process and Staking System
These would be the basic rules to get us running with this, but some of these could be altered, and there may be some additional rules later.
System Rules, Selection Process and Staking System
- * All the bets will be on games which have Match Rating in range -2/+2. Source for percentages is http://www.system-bet.com.
* Only one outcome needs to be value bet, i.e. if there is value on home win and draw for example, it's no bet according to this system.
* Of course, bet needs to be 'value bet', i.e. bookmakers odds need to be higher than our fair odds.
* In order to avoid huge mistakes, all bets where relative difference between our fair odds and bookmakers' odds is higher than 10% will be excluded.
* Staking system used will be Kelly Criteria - bets stakes 1-10 units.
* All the bets with Kelly stake higher than 10 will be excluded in order to avoid huge losses, in case our fair odds and bookmakers' odds differ too much.
* Leagues used - various.
These would be the basic rules to get us running with this, but some of these could be altered, and there may be some additional rules later.
