Betting Systems Forum

[dj.]

Goal Rating System is something that http://www.system-bet.com was built on.

Goal Rating System was used for more than a year on http://www.system-bet.com for bets selection week in week out and generated steady profit betting on traditional 1x2 odds and asian handicap (mainly English leagues, and small percentage of bets was from Scottish, Spanish, Italian, French and German top flights).

I will try to expand this system on more leagues in this forum, and will take a look from different angles on it, so I'll start few threads and we'll see how's going.

Of course, you're welcome to join me in this experiment, with Goal Rating System, or any other system you're using or would like to try.

This is original article taken from http://www.system-bet.com:

Goal Rating System is statistical football betting system based on simple fact that teams who scored more goals and conceded fewer in last several games have better chances of winning their next game.

So, the only measure in this model are number of goals scored and number of goals conceded for home and away team in a football match.

Match rating is calculated as following:
* Home team rating = Home team goals scored - Home team goals conceded
* Away team rating = Away team goals scored - Away team goals conceded
* Match rating = Home team rating - Away team rating

With enough amount of historical data, Match rating calculated like this is used for determining fair odds (or fair probabilities) for home win, draw and away win.

If the Match rating between two sides is equal to 0, it means we have match between two equal sides, and probability for a home win by this model is 46.5%.

This model gives best results for match ratings between -5 and 5, while for very high and very low match ratings reliability is much lower.

Note: This football betting system, as any other betting system should be used with caution, as there are too many other factors which should be considered before placing a bet, such as team news, motivation, weather, etc.

[dj.]

Modifications of Goal Rating System currently running on these forums:

Goal Rating System - Cagey Mode

Goal Rating System - Normal Mode

[dj.]

Ok, there will be no more selections after today, and I'll try to analyze results in next few days and start the next phase.

There won't be selections from main leagues as they all came to an end and throw loads of strange results and strange odds, so I'll start the next phase with Nordic leagues and American MLS.

[jeremiah]

A very interesting approach, I am looking forward to your analysis. I like such experiments like this, I do regular betting for years now and since soccer is one of my favorite sports, I place lots of bets on international soccer games. I am especially interested in the Champions League but it's probably not so easy creating a betting system for it.

[dj.]

A very interesting approach, I am looking forward to your analysis. I like such experiments like this, I do regular betting for years now and since soccer is one of my favorite sports, I place lots of bets on international soccer games. I am especially interested in the Champions League but it's probably not so easy creating a betting system for it.

jeremiah and welcome to this forum

I hope you like betting systems and strategies, and looking forward to hear some ideas from you