Betting Systems Forum

[dj.]

Normal Mode version of Goal Rating System is another approach to this system. Only matches with Match Rating in range between -2 and 2 will be taken into consideration, so games chosen should all be so called 'close' games. The aim of this experiment will be to take advantage of possible bookmakers' mistakes (is there such a thing?).

System Rules, Selection Process and Staking System

* All the bets will be on games which have Match Rating in range -2/+2. Source for percentages is http://www.system-bet.com.
* Only one outcome needs to be value bet, i.e. if there is value on home win and draw for example, it's no bet according to this system.
* Of course, bet needs to be 'value bet', i.e. bookmakers odds need to be higher than our fair odds.
* In order to avoid huge mistakes, all bets where relative difference between our fair odds and bookmakers' odds is higher than 10% will be excluded.
* Staking system used will be Kelly Criteria - bets stakes 1-10 units.
* All the bets with Kelly stake higher than 10 will be excluded in order to avoid huge losses, in case our fair odds and bookmakers' odds differ too much.
* Leagues used - various.

These would be the basic rules to get us running with this, but some of these could be altered, and there may be some additional rules later.

[dj.]

1/15/2010

Germany Bundesliga 2
Paderborn (-1) Dusseldorf, percentages 0.45 0.30 0.25, Back Paderborn @2.48 Pinnacle, stake 8/10
Netherlands Gouden Gids Divisie
Veendam (0) Apeldoorn, percentages 0.46 0.30 0.24, Back Draw @3.4 Coral, stake 1/10
Maastricht (0) Den Bosch, percentages 0.46 0.30 0.24, Back Maastricht @2.25 Coral, stake 4/10
French Ligue 2
Tours (1) Dijon, percentages 0.48 0.30 0.22, Back Dijon @5.00 Pinnacle, stake 3/10
Wales 1st league
Carmarthen (-1) Haverfordwest, percentages 0.45 0.30 0.25, Back Draw @3.60 Bet365, stake 3/10

[dj.]

I dont know the reason, but Netherlands 2nd league games are postponed

Carmarthen vs Haverfordwest match postponed, I guess because of weather

So we have only one match for tonight, Paderborn vs Dusseldorf

[dj.]

1/15/2010
Paderborn (-1) Dusseldorf, Home win @2.48 Pinnacle, stake 8/10, Bet Lost, Profit: -8.00
Tours (1) Dijon, Away win @5.00 Pinnacle, stake 3/10, Bet Won, Profit: 12.00

System started with profit

Performance stats will be displayed after 10 bets are settled.

[dj.]

1/16/2010
Ipswich (2) Coventry, Away win @5.00 Blue Square, stake 2/10
Stuttgart (0) Wolfsburg, Home win @2.28 Canbet, stake 5/10
Hannover (0) Hertha, Home win @2.26 Pinnacle, stake 4/10
Aves (0) Freamunde, Home win @2.25 VC Bet Expekt, stake 4/10
Brentford (0) Carlisle, Home win @2.25 Coral, stake 4/10

That's it for Saturday

[dj.]

1/16/2010
Ipswich (2) Coventry, Away win @5.00 Blue Square, stake 2/10, Bet Lost, profit: -2.00
Stuttgart (0) Wolfsburg, Home win @2.28 Canbet, stake 5/10, Bet Won, profit: 6.40
Hannover (0) Hertha, Home win @2.26 Pinnacle, stake 4/10, Bet Lost, profit: -4.00
Aves (0) Freamunde, Home win @2.25 VC Bet Expekt, stake 4/10, Bet Lost, profit: -4.00
Brentford (0) Carlisle, Home win @2.25 Coral, stake 4/10, Bet Won, profit: 5.00

Staked: 30.00
Profit: 5.40
Yield: 0.18
Bets: 7
Rate: 0.43
Odds: 3.07

[dj.]

1/17/2010

Almeria (1) Tenerife, Draw @3.52 Pinnacle, stake 2/10
Cartagena (2) Huelva, Home win @2.12 Pinnacle, stake 5/10
Portimonense (0) Estoril, Home win @ 2.20 VC Bet, stake 2/10
Rio Ave (0) Leiria, Home win @2.26 Pinnacle, stake 4/10
Napoli (2) Palermo, Home win @ 2.12 Pinnacle, stake 5/10

[dj.]

1/17/2010
Almeria (1) Tenerife, Draw @3.52 Pinnacle, stake 2/10, Bet Won, profit: 5.04
Cartagena (2) Huelva, Home win @2.12 Pinnacle, stake 5/10, Bet Won , profit: 5.60
Portimonense (0) Estoril, Home win @ 2.20 VC Bet, stake 2/10, Bet Won, profit: 2.40
Rio Ave (0) Leiria, Home win @2.26 Pinnacle, stake 4/10, Bet Lost, profit: -4.00

Napoli match pending

[dj.]

Napoli only 0-0, but still in profit

Here is the complete stats for today:

1/17/2010 Almeria 1 Tenerife , Draw @ 3.52 Pinnacle , stake 2/10 , Bet Won , profit: 5.04
1/17/2010 Cartagena 2 Huelva , Home win @ 2.12 Pinnacle , stake 5/10 , Bet Won , profit: 5.60
1/17/2010 Portimonense 0 Estoril , Home win @ 2.20 VC Bet , stake 2/10 , Bet Won , profit: 2.40
1/17/2010 Rio Ave 0 Leiria , Home win @ 2.26 Pinnacle , stake 4/10 , Bet Lost , profit: -4.00
1/17/2010 Napoli 2 Palermo , Home win @ 2.12 Pinnacle , stake 5/10 , Bet Lost , profit: -5.00

[dj.]

System Performance so far looks good:

Staked: 48.00
Profit: 9.44
Yield: 0.20
Bets: 12
Rate: 0.50
Odds: 2.81