Betting Systems Forum

[dj.]

Cagey Mode version of Goal Rating System will take on this system from average punter's point of view - no adventurous bets on underdogs or draws chasing.

System Rules, Selection Process and Staking System

* All the bets will be on teams which have advantage according to Goal Rating System, i.e. in order to back team his winning percentage has to be higher than 50%. Source for percentages is http://www.system-bet.com.
* Of course, bet needs to be 'value bet', i.e. bookmakers odds need to be higher than our fair odds.
* All the bets will be on 1x2 market only.
* Staking system used will be 1/2 Kelly Criteria - bets stakes 1-10 units.
* All the bets with Kelly stake higher than 10 will be excluded in order to avoid huge losses, in case our fair odds and bookmakers' odds differ too much.
* Leagues used - various.

These would be the basic rules to get us running with this, but some of these could be altered, and there may be some additional rules later.

[dj.]

1/15/2010

French Ligue 2
Vannes (5) Nimes, percentages 0.54 0.28 0.18, Back Vannes @ 2.15, Pinnacle Sports, stake 7/10
Sedan (6) Chateauroux, percentages 0.56 0.27 0.17, Back Sedan @ 1.91, Pinnacle Sports, stake 4/10
Wales 1st league
Bangor (20) N. C. Druids, percentages 0.78 0.12 0.10, Back Bangor @1.33, Bet365, stake 5/10

Explanation:
* Numbers in brackets are Match ratings

[marden]

Hi

what is match rating?

[dj.]

Hi

what is match rating?

Hi marden and welcome to forum

Match rating is based on number of goals scored and conceded in last 6 league games:
* Home team rating = Home team goals scored - Home team goals conceded
* Away team rating = Away team goals scored - Away team goals conceded
* Match rating = Home team rating - Away team rating

[dj.]

1/15/2010
Vannes (5) Nimes, Home win @2.15 Pinnacle, stake7/10, Bet Lost, profit: -7.00
Sedan (6) Chateauroux, Home win @1.91 Pinnacle, stake 4/10, Bet Lost, profit: -4.00
Bangor (20) N. C. Druids, Home win @1.33 Bet365, stake 5/10, Bet Won, profit: 1.65

Not the greatest start

Performance stats will be displayed after 10 bets are settled.

[dj.]

1/16/2010
Bristol City (3) Preston, Home win @2.23 Canbet, stake 6/10
Doncaster (5) Watford, Home win @2.20 Blue Square VC Bet Coral, stake 8/10
Las Palmas (6) Murcia, Home win @2.00 Bet365, stake 6/10
Nottingham (11) Reading, Home win @1.73 Blue Square, stake 7/10
Schalke (18) Nurnberg, Home win @1.42 Pinnacle, stake 7/10
Moenchengladbach (5) Bochum, Home win @1.92 Canbet, stake 2 /10
Osasuna (4) Espanyol, Home win @2.16 Pinnacle, stake 6/10
Peterborough (4) Derby, Home win @2.31 Canbet Pinnacle, stake 8/10
Sheffield Utd (3) Middlesbrough, Home win @2.20 Stan James VC Bet, stake 5/10
Swansea (4) Leicester, Home win @2.30 Blue Square, stake 8/10
Rochdale (15) Port Vale, Home win @1.58 Pinnacle, stake 9/10
Darlington (-20) Aldershot, Away win @1.91 Ladbrokes , stake 9/10

[marden]

better than yesterday - congratulation!

[dj.]

thanks marden, it's nice to see that anyone's following

btw, results will be updated shortly, and there should be few more bets for tomorrow

[dj.]

1/16/2010
Bristol City (3) Preston, Home win @2.23 Canbet, stake 6/10, Bet Won, profit: 7.38
Doncaster (5) Watford, Home win @2.20 Blue Square VC Bet Coral, stake 8/10, Bet Won, profit: 9.60
Las Palmas (6) Murcia, Home win @2.00 Bet365, stake 6/10, Bet Lost, profit: -6.00
Nottingham (11) Reading, Home win @1.73 Blue Square, stake 7/10, Bet Won,profit: 5.11
Moenchengladbach (5) Bochum, Home win @1.92 Canbet, stake 2/10, Bet Lost,profit: -2.00
Osasuna (4) Espanyol , Home win @2.16 Pinnacle , stake 6/10, Bet Won, profit: 6.96
Peterborough (4) Derby, Home win @ 2.31 Canbet Pinnacle, stake 8/10, Bet Won , profit: 10.48
Sheffield Utd (3) Middlesbrough, Home win @2.20 Stan James VC Bet, stake 5/10, Bet Won, profit:6.00
Swansea (4) Leicester, Home win @2.30 Blue Square, stake 8/10, Bet Won, profit: 10.40

Staked: 72.00
Profit: 38.58
Yield: 54%
Bets: 12
Rate: 0.67
Odds: 2.04

[dj.]

Schalke match is tomorrow