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Goal Rating System is statistical football betting system based on simple fact that teams who scored more goals and conceded fewer in last several games have better chances of winning their next game.
So, the only measure in this model are number of goals scored and number of goals conceded for home and away team in a football match.
Match rating is calculated as following: * Home team rating = Home team goals scored - Home team goals conceded * Away team rating = Away team goals scored - Away team goals conceded * Match rating = Home team rating - Away team rating
With enough amount of historical data, Match rating calculated like this is used for determining fair odds (or fair probabilities) for home win, draw and away win.
If the Match rating between two sides is equal to 0, it means we have match between two equal sides, and probability for a home win by this model is 46.5%.
This model gives best results for match ratings between -5 and 5, while for very high and very low match ratings reliability is much lower.
Note: This football betting system, as any other betting system should be used with caution, as there are too many other factors which should be considered before placing a bet, such as team news, motivation, weather, etc. |
